Tag Archives: alps

How is COVID affecting property prices in the Alps?

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Contrary to the received wisdom in the media we are not seeing a drop in demand or a reduction in prices for property in the Alps.

The popular press is predicting a drop in prices. We won’t list the articles on this subject. They certainly play well to our assumptions. And if you are in the market for a property, it plays well to your hopes! However, it is not our experience on the ground.

If you don’t have time to read on, then I will summarise our findings here. These are based on our historical record that goes back 20 years. We have increased activity on our website, and so far this month we have almost record numbers of enquiries. I say “almost” because as I write this, the month is not finished. But on the performance so far, enquiries for May 2020 could break our record. And since the beginning of our confinement, we have agreed 16 sales. Our prediction during this confinement would have been zero sales! The ratio of agreed prices to asking prices is minus 3.7%. Based on previous experience that is completely normal. Unless the property is new to the market and there seems to be other interest people will often make a lower offer than the asking price.

I’ll breakdown our 16 agreed sales here.

  • Average property price 422,750€
  • Agreed offer on average 3.7% lower than asking price.
  • Ranging from 62.000€ to 1.595m€
  • 8 Anglophone buyers (based in the UK or elsewhere)
  • 7 Francophone (mostly based in France)
  • 1 Finn

There are 2 distinguishing features of these buyers

  • 80% of them are new to us this year. Normally that would be about 50%, many of our customers spend some time looking for a property.
  • Most of them don’t need a mortgage, and therefore don’t need rental to help pay for the purchase. In fact, less than half of them see a rental return as important.

At the moment we are experiencing two types of buyers

  • Buyers in the middle of a purchase. Something they might have started last year, a long term project, they have signed the first contract and would normally be finalising the purchase at this point. COVID has destabilised these sales. The world they knew before they made the decision to buy has changed, and they are not sure about the future. Many of them are having second thoughts. Sometimes forced upon them by financial worries. Inevitably some of our sales agreed before COVID will falter and the properties will return to the market.
  • New buyers, buyers who have had the dream of an Alpine home for a while and have made the decision to take the plunge during this crisis. These sales may well be more secure. As far as these purchasers go, the world situation can only improve (and seems to be doing so).

So what is the main motivation of these new buyers? Some have suggested that they are looking for a lock-down bolthole. We don’t think that is the case. Travelling during the lockdown to a second home has been outlawed. Most (but not all!) have remained at their principal residence. We get the feeling that these “new” customers are reevaluating their lives and priorities. They are taking the opportunity to follow a dream. When you think of your own situation you might be able to emphasise with a reset of what your own aims and objectives are!

If you are interested you can see the list of properties we have recently sold on our “SOLD” property page. This is somewhat old news though. Contact us if you would like a more detailed breakdown of our sales.

Coronavirus COVID-19 and your Property in the Alps

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Are people still looking to buy?

For the first few weeks of the COVID crisis, demand for property in the Alps really did stop dead. One month into the confinement, and that is not the case now. Enquiries are down, but only by about 30%; activity on our website did drop by 40% for a couple of weeks, but now it is up on the same period as last year.

Pageviews on the Alpine Property website, March/April 2020 compared to 2019.

Do we expect a drop in prices?

We went through something similar in 2008, similar but smaller. Many people will wait to see if prices drop. If you are looking for a bargain then you need to act now. During the hiatus. And people are doing just that – we have agreed 4 sales over the last week. And two of them were at the full asking price. We can feel there is plenty of demand. If you wait until everything is stable again then you might have to wait for a while.

Do we expect a rise in prices?

It is possible (but arguable) that prices will rise in the medium to long term. The various governments may print money to try to deal with COVID and the recession that follows. In the past, this has led to inflation and property prices go up when this happens. If there is an imbalance between how countries react then you will see changes in the exchange rate. If the UK prints more money than the EU then the value of sterling could fall. All this also has to be weighed against the performance of the economy.

What is Alpine-Property doing during the Pandemic?

Up until 11th May, we are in “confinement”. This means that we are all encouraged to work from home, save for essential activities that cannot be done remotely. So, for Alpine-Property, there is no change. We don’t have bricks and mortar branches. All our agents are available as usual and working from their homes. We are on hand to answer your questions and discuss your plans.

How can you view a property?

On the whole, we can’t meet anyone in person at a property. And, even if we could, it is very unlikely that anyone could travel into the area legally for this purpose. However, we do have virtual tours for the majority of our properties. And assuming a property is empty we can make a virtual tour if one is missing. Obviously you can view these tours on our website in your own time. However, we encourage appointments with our agents so that they can accompany you on a virtual walkthrough, explaining about the property as they go. Our agents are doing this every day. You can see the properties we have for sale here.

Can you start the buying process?

You can, and some people have. Most of our customers are using this time to do their research, find out what is available. Decide which ski village suits their requirements. If you would like to borrow against this purchase, speak to the mortgage companies and find out what they can offer. Discuss the areas with our agents. We have 16 agents spread across the Haute Savoie. Each one would love to talk you through why their area is the best!

Will COVID prevent a current sale from completing?

Unlikely. Though it might delay it. During the first few weeks, we had to deal with various jams at the notaires’, the banks, and with more mundane issues like arranging energy reports! All these jams are beginning to become free now. All deadlines have been extended too. Contracts aren’t going to immediately fall apart because a deadline has been breached. So this means that a sale is more likely to be delayed than stopped.

Snow Forecast for the Alps

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Looking for an accurate snow forecast for the Alps? There are many to choose from, all if which give a different view. I am an avid weather watcher and find that using a wide range of tools gives me a pretty good idea of what the weather will be up to. In fact scrap “snow forecast” and swap for “precipitation forecast”, it doesn’t always snow!

The first place I go to is Chamonix Meteo:

http://chamonix-meteo.com/

this forecast is compiled by an amateur forecaster for the Chamonix valley. You’ll find this forecast pinned up in the shops and sometimes Tourist Offices too. Much to the dismay of France Meteo who would prefer the local commerces pay for their weather forecast! This weather forecast is often updated twice a day, sometime around 8am and then again at 6pm. Its got a good English translation too.

Another amateur set-up is Météo Léman, as you might guess from the title, it is good for those of us based in the Chablais and the Jura too. In fact you are as well just subscribing to their Facebook page as they post more updates on there.

http://meteoleman.com/

The next website I head to is Snow Forecast (.com):

http://www.snow-forecast.com/

these guys provide animated maps and also a longer (pay) forecast, I used to pay for this longer forecast but don’t need to any more, thanks to the other websites further down the list. If you read too much into the snow depth numbers you might be disappointed. I find one of the most useful bits of this forecast is the temperature (freezing level) graph. Clearly visible here. This weekend it looks like we will need to wear shorts!

snow forecast

For a longer range forecast I head to MeteoBlue 

https://www.meteoblue.com/

this website gives a nice graphical representation of the weather, but as you can see the temperature graph looks quite different from the one above. It’s because they include the diurnal variation, more accurate but less intuitive.

meteo blue

MeteoBlue is full of other useful representations too. This one is on the “14 day” tab. It’s for the same period as the previous screenshots. I think from this we can be sure of a little precipitation on Friday but that the week after there is a 50% chance it will be unsettled (so that doesn’t really tell us much after the weekend).

14 day

Don’t forget the weather radar either. These give a real time view and predictions for the precipitation over the coming hours. France Meteo and Meteo Swiss are the source of this data. I tend to use the Swiss one:

 http://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch

these are only interesting when there is precipitation, not that great as I am writing this. Though it does look like it’s raining over the Ligurian coast of Italy just now.

radar

The Avalanche forecast gives a sober report of the actual snow conditions and an unbiased assessment of snow depth, recent snow falls and a prediction for the next day. This comes out at about 4pm each day with a forecast for the next day, it’s regional too, so for the Haute Savoie it is split into Aravis / Chablais / Mont Blanc.

http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/bulletin-avalanches/

avy report

We are getting a bit more in depth here. On MeteoBlue you have access to more than a dozen versions of the forecast. Sometimes you may hear people talk about the Multimodel forecasts, GFS Forecasts, (the wiggly lines), these are the source of all these weather forecasts, basically the various weather forecasting authorities run their mathematical models and these forecasts try and pull them all together. The more the lines follow each other, the more the models agree and the more reliable the forecast. Here is a link to the MeteoBlue Multimodel:

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/forecast/multimodel

multimodel

Wunderground is an interesting site. It aggregates all the personal weather stations that you can buy and connect to the web. You can’t always trust these have been well sited but the results can be interesting. It’s information like this that means the likes of Apple and Google can now tell you the actual temperature outside via your phone. Quite bizarre but very accurate. 

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/

weather map

More resources.

Snow depths from around the Alps, temperatures and recent snow fall too.

http://metaskirando.camptocamp.org/Nivo.php#Aig

Every link you can imagine on the subject, all the Alps and Switzerland.

http://www.camptocamp.org/articles/107228/fr/liens-utiles-meteo-bulletin-avalanche-neige

The webcams, of which there are now hundreds to choose from. I’ll include the ones I use for the Portes du Soliel.

Têtes (St Jean d’Aulps, pictured below) http://m.webcam-hd.com/vallee-d-aulps/roc-d-enfer

Tete at St Jean d'Aulps

Pointe des Mossettes http://portesdusoleil.livecam360.net/

Avoriaz http://avoriaz.roundshot.com/ 

Chavannes (Les Gets) http://m.webcam-hd.com/lesgets/lesgets_chavannes

Mt Chery http://m.webcam-hd.com/lesgets/les_gets_sommet-chery

Lac de Montriond http://m.webcam-hd.com/vallee-d-aulps/lac-montriond

Linderets http://m.webcam-hd.com/vallee-d-aulps/les-lindarets

Plateau St Jean d’Aulps http://m.webcam-hd.com/vallee-d-aulps/plateau-st-jean-d-aulps/

 

 

Snowmageddon in the Haute Savoie, 2015

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We had a great period of snow over the last days of January 2015. In total between 1.3 and 1.6m of snow fell during a 5 day period. I documented the scenes in photos each day.  The first image is taken from the Avalanche Forecasting website, you can believe these figures, they aren’t trying to sell ski holidays!
snowmageddon10a

 

The photos follow here.

New Chalets in St Jean d’Aulps

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If you thought all building work stops in the Alps in the winter (so all the tradesmen can go off to their second jobs as ski instructors), then think again. It is still the case on a small-scale but in general the tradesmen try to keep working all year around. The idea is to make a structure waterproof so work can carry on inside during the winter months. As an example have a look at this development of the Chalets des Cimes project, it has been continuing throughout this winter in sight of the pistes. The developer has just sent me these photos.

chalets in st jean d'aulps

This is my favourite as you can see the piste and the ski lift in the background.

These chalets are excellent quality. Note the copper guttering, the granite faced first floor walls (this is an option for an extra cost), the charred and brushed Douglas Pine (this means you won’t need to varnish or treat the wood). I wrote an article where I mentioned the quality of chalets we see in the Alps and how it’s hard to compare with a cheap build in the UK. These chalets are a good example of this.

Don’t forget that these chalets are at the base of the piste at La Grande Terche (Espace Roc d’Enfer), they are in the Portes du Soleil and only 20 minutes drive from the skiing in Morzine or Avoriaz.

chalets in st jean d'aulps 2

Out of the 9 that are being built, a couple of them are sold and another 2 more are “in negotiation” (as of 18/Feb/2014), we’ve listed the different types on our website here:

Les Chalets des Cîmes, No. 9 
600 000 €uros, 5 bedrooms, 144m2

Les Chalets des Cîmes, No. 3 
580 000 €uros, 4 bedrooms, 133m2

Les Chalets des Cîmes, No. 4 
550 000 €uros, 4 bedrooms, 121m2

Les Chalets des Cîmes, No. 2
525 000 €uros, 4 bedrooms, 121m2

I want to run a Chalet Business in the Alps

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I used to get asked this question twice a week.

“How do I start a chalet business in the Alps?”

I think 2005/6 was the peak. Everyone wanted to move to the Alps, sometimes it was 1 in 4 of the enquiries we received . There was a lull in interest from 2008 to 2011 but the question is returning now. Not to the same level but maybe once a week.

Pic de la Corne 2014

I have learnt over time that the question should really be phrased a bit better. Perhaps:

“how can I make a life in the Alps?”

would be more appropriate. I think the reason that most people assume a Chalet Business is the way to do it is because most people that have gone skiing have witnessed at first hand a chalet business. The holiday cost them €800 so the embryonic business plan started over the dinner table.

€800 x 10 people staying in the chalet = €8,000

€8,000 x 16 weeks for the season = €128,000

That sounds like a lot of money! There must be a margin there?

Obviously you need a chalet or even better a small hotel, then there are the usual bills, food and linen to pay for too but surely there is a fair living to be made? And that’s not including the summer business. Right, sign me up, where do I start?

Well I’ve been there. Now I earn my living from my full time job with Alpine Property I’ve also worked a couple of winter seasons, I did run a chalet business (mostly summer based) for 10 years and now I live in the Alps with my wife and 3 children. Surely living proof that it’s a good idea? Well “Yes” and “No”. I’m now going to give my advice. Feel free to take it with a pinch of salt!

My first bit of advice is “don’t do it”. Well don’t start the chalet business that is. Living in the Alps is a great idea! Have a look at your skills, can you carry them over to the Alps and keep working? That’ could be a possibility? And it might be better in the long term. There are plenty of people that live in the Alps and make a living here or based from here. These are the trades I know of:

Accountants, #pilots, #lawyers, journalists, IT experts, various consultants and #project managers, guides (walking / biking / climbing), ski instructors, electricians, carpenters, plasterers, plumbers, builders, bankers (in Geneva), doctors, nurses, #engineers, estate agents, interior designers, graphic designers, photographers, artists, writers, teachers, taxi drivers, hotels owners and hospitality workers….

The professions marked as # generally work away from home and use the Alps as a base. There are bound to be more, these are just the ones I know personally.

Alpine Property Team Meal 2011

Even with the various jobs I have mentioned there are some fairly thorny issues that you need to take into account. Living in another country is the main one. Of course there is the language but that isn’t half of it. The French have a different attitude to life and this should not be forgotten. In fact it’s crucial. Before I came out I read “60m Frenchman can’t be wrong”.  I read it but I didn’t really understand it. I’m still coming to terms with that 14 years later. I’ve three observations to make on this subject.

1. France loves rules. The French pretend they don’t. The state loves rules and regulations though and as far as a profession or job goes you would be well advised to find out about the rules and work within them. In contrast the UK seems to have no rules. Commerce seems to be something that anyone can try their hand at. Not so in France.

2. France is a socialist country. When labour governed in the UK (in my lifetime) they were only pretending to socialist. When Sarko was in charge in France he was only pretending to be right-wing. The fact is it costs a fortune to run a socialist country and this will need paying for. The cost of living in France seems high compared to the UK, everything costs more (almost everything) and everything in a ski resort costs more than that! It seems that in general the French are taxed considerably more that in the UK, this means that everyone needs to charge more to break even.

3. The French value their time off. Be that eating times or weekends. Never get between the French and lunch. An Anglo Saxon might find this funny but if you are French it’s deadly serious. It becomes before business. No question.

So if you don’t feel that you can carry over your current skills and you still think running a chalet is the way forward then hang on! I’ll go on to explain some of the issues and pitfalls in the next post.

PT 2, updated in Dec 2016.